By Lucas Ajanaku
WorldStage Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2026– Demand and Trade Dynamics: From mobile networks connecting millions to fintech apps revolutionizing daily financial transactions, Nigeria’s information communication technology (ICT) has evolved from a supporting player into the engine of the country’s digital transformation.
With sustained and consistent policies to spur private investments, the 2026 outlook sees a sector in a growth trajectory.
Despite that ICT trade remains in a persistent services deficit, with imports of digital technologies and services far outpacing exports, the sector sustained growth, expanding by 5.78 percent in Q3 2025, driven by rising mobile subscriptions, broadband penetration, widespread adoption of mobile and real time payments and a strong demand from digital transformation across businesses and government enterprises.
This momentum is expected to continue into 2026, especially in cloud
computing, cybersecurity, and fintech, though infrastructure gaps could
worsen if broadband and data capacity fail to scale with demand
Specifically, the sector is expected to be driven by mobile broadband services with a growing demand for high-speed internet and data services; the adoption of 5G networks is expected to increase; mobile money and fintech services are expected to continue growing; IoT and M2M connectivity are expected to grow at a 2.29 percent CAGR through 2031.
With the Nigeria telecoms market size estimated at $4.76 billion in 2026, it is projected to grow at a 2.12 percent CAGR, reaching $5.29 billion by 2031 while the total telecom and pay-TV service revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 1.6 percent during 2024-2029.
From the last subscriber figure released by the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) in November 2025, MTN Nigeria has the largest subscriber numbers of 91,935,415 representing 51.89 percent; Airtel Nigeria has 59,849,113 representing 33.78 per cent; Globacom 22,215,119 representing 12. 54 and T2 (former Etisalat, 9mobile) 3,188,238 representing 1.80 percent.
With revenue from voice seems to have reached its plateau, data has become the new oil, a worthwhile experience on their networks.
Coming from 2025, mobile internet subscribers (GSM) rose to 144,151,655; fixed wired 83,417; internet service providers (ISPs) (Wired/Wireless) 313,713; while voice over internet protocol (VoIP) 238,496 thus bringing total number of internet users to 144,787,281.
Investment and Funding
The telecoms sector in Nigeria is expected to see significant investment in 2026, with operators planning to spend over $1 billion on network infrastructure expansion. This investment aims to improve network reliability, speed, and coverage, supporting growing demand for data services and 5G expansion.
The investment in the sector is expected to be driven by government-led digital transformation, major connectivity projects (fiber optics, 4,000 towers), and initiatives promoting a digital economy and local tech innovation.
The full impact of some key investments including the World Bank’s $500 million BRIDGE project to expand broadband and attract private investment, and the $617 million iDICE initiative supported by AfDB, IsDB and AFD to upskill young Nigerians will begin to play out during the year while opportunities in broadband deployment, cloud services, and fast growing digital startups are expected to sustain investor interest throughout the year.
The NCC has received commitments from operators to exceed 2025 investment levels, which supported the deployment of over 2,850 new network sites nationwide. It is anticipating that this will lead to further improvements in service quality for subscribers.
Government Reforms
Some key ICT policy reforms introduced by the government in 2025 to strengthen digital economy, boost innovation, and enhance ICT competitiveness in 2026 include the National IP Policy, ratification of AfCFTA’s Digital Trade Protocol, and NITDA’s Startup Policy to drive skills and entrepreneurship.
There is also the tax reforms that streamlined levies and added incentives for tech firms, while the Digital Economy & E-Governance Bill aims to harmonize rules on etransactions, data governance, and cybersecurity.
NCC has complemented these with a new corporate governance guidelines and targeted policies to promote digital trade.
Other reforms in the telecoms sector aiming to boost efficiency, transparency, and economic growth include National Telecommunications Policy Review where the NCC is reviewing the National Telecommunications Policy (NTP) established in 2000 to address digital services, broadband, satellite networks, and infrastructure costs; NCC has presented a Draft General Authorisation Framework to promote agile, inclusive, and innovation-driven regulation; NCC plans to revise the Nigerian Communications Act to address AI, 5G, and cybersecurity, strengthening enforcement capabilities and stakeholder engagement; a new chapter on broadband targets is proposed to protect critical national infrastructure and harmonizing right-of-way charges; Chapter Eight of the NTP is being reviewed for satellite harmonization, upstream and downstream service provisioning, and coexistence with terrestrial networks; Chapter Seven is also being updated for online safety, content moderation, and platform regulation.
With these reforms aim to position Nigeria as a leader in the global digital economy, improve internet connectivity, and enhance cybersecurity, the 50 percent tariff hike approved earlier in 2025 has started making a significant impact on the financial strength of the mobile network operators (MNOs) that are the direct beneficiaries.
The hike was expected to keep the sector on a strong revenue growth pedestal for the remainder of last year with total revenue for major players projected to reach over N3 trillion by year-end.
Between Q3 and Q4 2025, MNOs saw a surge in revenue and profitability. The tariff adjustment, coupled with a rebound in the naira, significantly boosted profitability.
It also marked a significant turnaround from losses for the MNOs. For instance, after suffering over N514 billion loss in the first nine months of 2024, MTN Nigeria swung into N750.2 billion profit in the same period for 2025.
Data revenue became the primary driver, with MTN’s data revenue growing 51.5 percent in Q1 2025 and maintaining strong momentum through the year, driven by higher data consumption despite the increased prices.
MNOs aggressively localized debt with 95 percent of Airtel’s operating company debt in local currency, which significantly reduced foreign exchange losses, marking an aggressive move against credit exposure to foreign currency, especially the USD. The consequences are both on the operational and market segments of the ecosystem.
The increased revenue enabled MNOs to ramp up capital expenditure (CAPEX), with investments in network expansion exceeding $1 billion in 2025 while focusing on 5G deployment.
The higher tariffs however resulted in a slower rate of new subscriber identity module (SIM) card activation by consumers, although active subscriptions remained high due to the necessity of data.
However, despite higher revenue, subscribers continued to report poor service quality in Q3/Q4, putting pressure on MNOs to deliver on promises of better network performance which was part of the reasons the tariff adjustment was approved.
Opportunities
According to projection, the ICT sector is primed to contribute between 20 percent and 22 percent of GDP, up from between 17 percent and 18 percent in 2024-2025. This leap, driven by infrastructure investments and smartphone penetration, will help diversify beyond oil. The Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation, and Digital Economy is driving a strategy to raise ICT contribution to 21 percent by 2027.
The longer-term goal is to elevate the digital economy’s contribution to 25 percent by 2030, particularly through the implementation of the National Digital and E-Government Bill.
The Federal Government is projecting the growth to drive productivity across other sectors, including agriculture, education, and manufacturing.
Economic experts have even projected that the country will surpass all the growth projections contained in the budget, seeing 2026 as a reference year for an accelerated stock market. Inflation is expected to dip to single digit while policy will be the driver of the growth.
The President of the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), Tony Emoekpere, said the sector’s improved numbers reflect greater responsiveness from policymakers.
“The increase in revenue and contribution to GDP is a testament to the policies that have been put in place and the fact that this government has been responsive to industry needs,” he said.
Universal broadband is expected to surpass 70per cent+ population with access, internet penetration over 65 percent with PPPs under the National Digital Economy Policy designed to bridge rural-urban gaps.
The outlook 2026 is envisaging talent explosion as 1 million tech-trained professionals via programs like the Three Million Technical Talent (3MTT) expected to help harness the talents of Nigeria’s youthful demographic (median age under 18) for skills in artificial intelligence (AI), cybersecurity, and fintech.
The nation’s startup ecosystem is expected to witness a boom with $10 billion+ in cumulative VC funding, cementing Nigeria as Africa’s top tech hub with scalable ventures in healthtech, edtech, and logistics.
Consistent enforcement of data protection by the Nigeria Data Protection Commission (NDPC), AI strategies, and digital trade rules are projected to spur foreign direct investment (FDI) into the sector and foster long-term innovation.
It is believed that a thriving ICT sector will transform beyond tech towers. It promises efficiencies in agriculture, healthcare, education, and energy—lowering costs and scaling services. Nigeria eyes West African digital leadership, exporting talent and services amid rising digital literacy.
Revenues paint an optimistic picture as the digital economy could top $18.3 billion by 2026, fueled by the tsunami of AI, over 40 Tbps submarine cable bandwidth, and private investments. The broader ICT market, valued at $13.1 billion in 2024 with a 13.2 percent compound average growth rate (CAGR), targets $35.5 billion by 2032.
The Federal Government had promised the rollout of the N3.3 trillion 90,000 kilometres of fibre lines, 7,000 Telecom Towers infrastructure nationwide in Q4 2025, saying the foundational reforms, coupled with advancements in AI and the startup ecosystem, have positioned Nigeria as a global leader in the digital economy.
The FG has also stressed that the 3MTT programme, launched in October 2023 to create a tech-savvy workforce has trained over 117,000 Nigerians in digital skills, surpassing its initial target of 30,000. With an additional 35,000 in training, the programme is said to be nearing 10 percent of its three million goal.
A total of $2 billion investment is said to be on the pipeline to ensure every Nigerian can access affordable, high-quality connectivity regardless of location. Increasing connectivity hubs by just 10 percent could yield a 2.5 percent GDP growth.
Nigeria is ranking among the world’s top 60 countries for AI readiness and developing a homegrown large language model (LLM) while the launch of the AI Collective platform, supported by leading partners including Pierre Omidyar, Google, and Microsoft, will foster collaboration and innovation in artificial intelligence.
For the first time in the country, the FG has funded 55 academic researchers to explore technology applications in agriculture, healthcare, and education. In addition, N300 million was invested in 10 startups using AI and blockchain to enhance agricultural productivity.
On the Nigeria Startup House in San Francisco—an initiative targeting $5 billion in startup funding—the FG said the goal is to connect local tech firms to global opportunities and government procurement.
Over 500 government technologists were said to have been trained in AI and Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), and the groundbreaking Digital Economy Bill has passed its first reading in the National Assembly.
To bridge rural connectivity gaps, the FG projected that 7,000 telecoms towers would be deployed, targeting 98 percent nationwide coverage, with the Federal Executive Council said to have approved the project.
The progress on Right-of-Way (RoW) issues has been described as a game-changer for the country, with 12 states adopting zero-rated RoW policies.
Challenges
Infrastructure lags, with rural broadband at just 23 percent despite 45 percent of Nigerians living there will still remain a major challenge in the short term.
Unreliable power for data centers, while skill mismatches hobble employability.
Cybersecurity threats and governance gaps loom large, demanding initiatives such as Project BRIDGE and the National AI Strategy.
It is also not yet clear when the 90,000km fibre lines and 7,000 telecoms towers promised by the Federal Government will take off. When they eventfully do, they will greatly improve access and reduce cost.
There remains the challenges of increasing smartphone adoption and mobile data demand with the accompany cost; government initiatives, such as Project Bridge, aim to expand connectivity and reduce costs; regulatory complexities, infrastructure limitations, and cybersecurity concerns.
Rising costs of smartphones and data tariffs are stalling internet adoption, threatening to further widen the digital divide.
The November 2025 report from the NCC on the market share of technologies showed that 38.29 percent is still on 2G; 3G at 6.13 percent; 4G at 51.99 percent and 5G at 3.60 percent.
For 5G, affordability and high cost of deployment have made it very challenging while the cost of compatible devices is also disenfranchising.
Hopefully, the regulatory environment would remain predictable while the operationalization of Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) Executive Order signed by President Bola Tinubu will take place during in 2026 to checkmate telecoms equipment vandalism, stealing and illegal takeover of base transceiver stations (BTS) by non-state-actors.
It is also expected that the new Tax Acts will end the era of multiple taxation in the industry so that it would be able to breathe and contribute to the government’s renaissance agenda.
*Extract from WorldStage Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2026.
