WorldStage– The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has hinged the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
LCCI Director General, Dr Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos, via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion.
She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.
She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.
According to Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.
She, however, noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing remained a significant fiscal burden.
This, Almona, said underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.
She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.
“The oil price benchmark of US$64.85 per barrel, although lower than the US$75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about US$69.60 per barrel and current prices around US$60 per barrel.
“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.
“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.
“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.
Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.
She said while this may support naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.
The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.
She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.
Looking ahead, Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.
She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.
She stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.
“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.
“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
