WorldStage– As of today, Nigeria’s population is estimated at approximately 239.6 million, according to live projections derived from United Nations data.
This figure, however, remains provisional, as Nigeria has not conducted an official national census since 2006, which reported a population of 140 million, a count that was itself mired in controversy over resource allocation and ethnic representation.
A planned 2023 census was postponed indefinitely, leaving all current population figures as estimates based on demographic models, surveys, and projections.
The most widely cited figures come from the UN World Population Prospects (2024 revision), which projects Nigeria’s mid-year population for 2025 at 237.5 million. Other estimates vary slightly depending on methodology and timing, with Statista citing 237.6 million, Macrotrends at 234.6 million, and Countrymeters estimating 232.2 million at the start of the year, rising to roughly 238.4 million by year-end.
Discrepancies among these estimates reflect differences in assumptions about fertility rates around 5.2 births per woman mortality, migration patterns, and annual growth rates, typically between 2.4% and 2.7%.
While UN figures are generally considered the global benchmark, local debates persist, with some stakeholders arguing that estimates either undercount or overcount specific regions for political reasons.
The absence of a recent census leaves Nigeria reliant on projections to guide policy, planning, and resource distribution. Analysts warn that the uncertainty complicates infrastructure development, healthcare planning, and electoral processes, which all depend on accurate population data.
Despite the lack of definitive figures, demographic projections suggest Nigeria’s population could reach 375 million by 2050, solidifying its status as Africa’s most populous nation and one of the fastest-growing populations globally.
Experts continue to call for a credible, transparent census to provide reliable data, emphasizing that accurate population figures are critical not only for governance but also for economic planning and social policy.
Until then, population estimates remain a combination of science, assumption, and cautious interpretation.
