By Bamidele Famoofo
WorldStage– Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation is positioned as a net beneficiary of higher global energy prices rising from the ongoing US-Iran conflict with widening oil receipts expected to push its trade surplus to $28.58 billion 2026E from $18.71billion 2025E.
The upward revision in trade surplus reflects expected robust export receipts from gas and refined petroleum products, alongside a continued decline in petroleum imports further aided by the suspension of gasoline import licenses to marketers. Consequently, the improved trade balance supports analyst’s revised projection for the current account surplus of USD 25 .15 billion (previous: USD 10 .85 billion | 2025E: USD 16.40 billion).
In its economic note titled: ‘US -Iran Conflict and Macroeconomic Impact’, Cordros Securities, a leading investment house, noted that it expects Nigeria’s trade surplus to widen further following the recent uptick in global oil prices in line with its revised average oil price assumption of USD 78 .11/barrel (previous: USD58.00/barrel) and projected crude oil production of 1.75mb/d in 2026E. “We forecast the trade surplus to reach USD 28.58 billion in 2026E, up from USD18.71 billion in 2025E and significantly higher than our previous estimate of USD13.60 billion.”
Oil exports continue to contribute a large share of Nigeria’s external earnings, with crude oil and oil -related products (including gas and refined petroleum products) now accounting for over 8 3.0 percent (as of Q3 -25) of total exports.
Notwithstanding the stronger current account outlook, experts anticipate relatively subdued capital inflows during periods of heightened geopolitical tensions, which may intermittently pressure the naira as foreign investors adopt a more cautious stance toward emerging and frontier markets. Despite improving export earnings, foreign portfolio inflows remain a major contributor to total inflows in the FX market. Nonetheless, it’s expected that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), supported by relatively stronger reserves to maintain measured FX interventions will contain excessive volatility.
As geopolitical tensions gradually ease, experts anticipate a recovery in capital inflows that should help stabilise the currency toward the latter part of the year. Accordingly, Cordros expects the naira to weaken toward the N1,400.00/USD region in the near term before appreciating toward N1,350.00/USD by year -end.
