Geoeconomic fragmentation imposing an annual cost of $213–$307 billion on the global economy, according to a new World Economic Forum report release today. Driven by geopolitical tensions, economic security concerns and shifting trade relationships across major economies, fragmentation accelerated through 2025 and 2026 and is increasingly affecting trade, finance and investment systems.
Deepening Divides: The Cost of a More Fragmented Financial System — published in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, a Marsh business, and the second in the Forum’s fragmentation series — finds that these pressures are playing out through escalating tariffs, investment restrictions and retaliatory measures.
The report finds that the growing use of economic statecraft in 2025 and 2026 marked a turning point for global trade and finance. While the first report focused primarily on fragmentation risks between geopolitical rivals, the latest findings suggest a broader structural shift is underway. Tariffs and investment restrictions are increasingly affecting traditionally aligned economies, including the US, the EU, Canada, Japan and South Korea, raising costs for businesses and increasing uncertainty for cross-border trade and investment.
“The global financial system has faced increasing pressures from geopolitical and economic fragmentation,” says Matthew Blake, Managing Director and Head of the Centre for Financial and Monetary Systems World Economic Forum. “Despite these pressures, the financial system has remained resilient. Markets have continued to provide real-time feedback on evolving policies while policy-makers have generally avoided actions that could erode confidence in the international financial system. As fragmentation persists, preserving the trust and stability that underpin global finance will be critical to supporting long-term growth and prosperity.”
The economic costs are rising
As fragmentation becomes more embedded across markets and financial systems and barriers rise even among allies, the risks of escalation and long-term economic disruption increase. If current trends accelerate into more severe fragmentation scenarios, global losses could reach as much as $6.9 trillion, or 6.4% of global GDP, according to the report’s modelling, an economic impact larger than every economy in the world except the US and China.
Ultimately, fragmentation impacts both businesses and households. Current fragmentation policies are estimated to add 0.2–0.3 percentage points to global inflation, eroding purchasing power across most economies. The sharpest real wage impacts are seen in the United States, where real wages are estimated to be 0.33% lower for low-skilled workers, 0.49% lower for medium-skilled workers and 0.66% lower for high-skilled workers, with similar purchasing-power pressures visible in other major economies.
“In conversations with business leaders around the world, the message is remarkably consistent: What businesses need most right now is predictability, and they are not getting it,” says Daniel Tannebaum, Partner and Global Leader, Anti-Financial Crime Practice, Oliver Wyman, a Marsh business. “Without clearer guardrails around tariffs, sanctions and other economic measures, the risks to investment, growth and financial stability will continue to mount.”
Emerging markets face the sharpest exposure
Emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are likely to be the hardest hit by the impacts of growing financial fragmentation. In the most extreme fragmentation scenario, countries outside the major geopolitical blocs, most of which are EMDEs, could face output losses of 10.7%, compared to a global decline of 6.4%.
Structural factors like shallower capital markets make EMDEs more dependent on international capital flows and more vulnerable to the negative impacts of a less integrated financial system.
Africa exemplifies both the risks and potential resilience pathways. The continent’s exposure to external capital flows means a more fragmented system would make development financing more expensive and less predictable. At the same time, regional integration – through initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and payment systems such as Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) – offers pathways to build resilience in Africa, which also stands to benefit from such secular trends as population growth and an abundance of critical raw materials.
Policymakers can limit the damage
While fragmentation is unlikely to reverse in the near term, it can be managed. The report identifies five actions policy-makers can take to mitigate fragmentation:
Establish shared guardrails to protect the financial system from fragmentation, emphasizing principles like safeguarding the rule of law and independent monetary policy, limiting the seizure of sovereign assets, and protecting the integrity of government data.
Align on rules to guide the use of economic statecraft policies that advance national security and resilience objectives without undermining global growth.
Ensure policy predictability to sustain investment flows and allow for the continued functioning of cross-border capital and financial markets.
Maintain interoperability across payment and digital currency systems and prepare businesses for a more fragmented geoeconomic operating environment.
Advance regional integration initiatives such as the AfCFTA and PAPSSP, as well as support the development of domestic and regional capital markets, including the European Savings and Investments Union.
Together, these measures can help preserve financial stability and resilience even as the global economy becomes more fragmented.
