WorldStage– Nigeria, projected to become Africa’s third-largest economy in 2026, with a GDP of $334 billion closed fourth quarter (Q4) 2025 with a positive merchandise trade balance of ₦1,712.48 billion, signaling resilience in its external sector despite a notable drop in crude oil exports, as China leads imports and the Netherlands remains the top export partner.
The total merchandise trade stood at ₦36,214.34 billion in Q4, 2025, representing a decrease of 1.07% from ₦36,604.83 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024; and a decrease of 8.94% compared to the value recorded in the preceding quarter (₦39,771.47 billion).
The Q4 2025 foreign trade goods statistic report, released in March 2026, by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), attributed to a decline of crude oil export within the period.
The report noted that, in the quarter under review, exports accounted for 52.36% of total trade with a value of ₦18,963.41 billion, showing a decrease of 5.25% over the value recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 (₦20,014.33 billion) and a decrease of 16.88% compared to the value recorded in Q3, 2025 (₦22,813.57 billion).
Analysis shows that crude oil remained Nigeria’s major exported commodity in the fourth quarter of 2025 with a value of ₦9,702.87 billion, representing 51.17% of total exports. A further breakdown reveals that the value of non-crude oil exports stood at ₦9,260.54 billion, accounting for 48.83% of total exports; of which non-oil products contributed ₦3,145.54 billion or 16.59% of total exports.
IMPORTS
On the other hand, imports accounted for 47.64% of total trade in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a value of ₦17,250.93 billion representing a 3.98% increase compared to ₦16,590.51 billion recorded in Q4 2024, and 1.73% increase from ₦16,957.90 billion recorded in Q3 2025. On the other hand, imports accounted for 47.64% of total trade in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a value of ₦17,250.93 billion representing a 3.98% increase compared to ₦16,590.51 billion recorded in Q4 2024, and 1.73% increase from ₦16,957.90 billion recorded in Q3 2025.
According to the report, Nigeria’s import trade reveals that China continues to dominate in the fourth quarter of 2025, followed by the United States of America, The Netherlands, India and Brazil.
The most traded commodities imported during the quarter were Motor spirit ordinary, Durum wheat, Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals crude, Cane sugar meant for sugar refinery, and Used Vehicles, with diesel or semidiesel engine.
The value of agricultural goods imported in Q4 2025 stood at ₦1,436.65 billion, representing a 31.74% increase compared to ₦1,090.55 billion recorded in Q4 2024, and a 30.24% increase relative to ₦1,103.04 billion recorded in Q3 2025.
In the same period, the import value of raw material goods was ₦2,351.88 billion, representing a 11.50% increase from ₦2,109.26 billion in Q4 2024, and a 16.59% increase compared to ₦2,017.14 billion in the preceding quarter (Q3 2025).
In the fourth quarter of 2025, solid mineral imports were valued at ₦140.99 billion, representing a 26.12% increase from ₦111.79 billion, and 86.77% increase compared to ₦75.49 billion recorded in Q3 2025.
In the same period, the value of imported manufactured goods stood at ₦8,803.27 billion, reflecting a 3.89% increase from ₦8,473.56 billion, and a 13.31% increase from ₦7,769.34 billion recorded in Q3 2025.
The value of other oil products imported in Q4 2025 stood at ₦4,018.31 billion, reflecting a 16.38% decrease from ₦4,805.23 billion in Q4 2024 and a 11.95% increase from ₦3,589.35 billion recorded in Q3 2025.
EXPORTS
Total exports in Q4 2025 were valued at ₦18,963,41 billion, reflecting a 5.25% decline compared to ₦20,014.33 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2024 and a 16.88% decrease when compared to ₦22,813,57 billion in Q3, 2025.
In Q4 2025, Nigeria’s top five trading export partners were The Netherlands, India, Spain, France and Canada. The most exported commodities were crude oil, natural gas, Kerosine type jet fuel, other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, and Urea, whether or not in aqueous solution.
Exports of agricultural goods in the period under review amounted to ₦1,323.06 billion representing a 14.11% decline from ₦1,540.46 billion in Q4 2024 and a 68.20% increase from ₦786.62 billion in Q3, 2025.
In the same period, the value of raw material exports stood at ₦1,192.49 billion, representing a rise of 77.69% from ₦671.12 billion in Q4 2024 and a 14.70% increase from ₦1,039.65 billion in Q3, 2025.
Analysis shows that solid mineral exports in Q4 2025 were valued at ₦116.84 billion; representing a 92.48% increase from ₦60.70 billion in Q4 2024 as well as an increase of 15.90% from ₦100.81 billion in Q3, 2025.
The value of manufactured goods exports in Q4 2025 stood at ₦423.43 billion, reflecting a 14.32% decrease from ₦494.22 billion in Q4 2024 and a decrease of 56.73% from ₦978.53 billion in Q3, 2025.
Crude oil exports in Q4 2025 were valued at ₦9,702.87 billion; the value decreased by 29.60% from ₦13.783.00 billion in Q4 2024 and decreased by 24.24% from ₦12,806.78 billion in Q3, 2025.
Other oil product exports in Q4 2025 stood at ₦6,115.00 billion, showing an increase of 80.45% from ₦3.388.80 billion in Q4 2024 and a decrease of 12.77% from ₦7,010.17 billion in Q3, 2025.
